Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.
منابع مشابه
Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia
Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theo...
متن کاملPotential corridors and barriers for plague spread in central Asia
BACKGROUND Plague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations in Central Asia. Gr...
متن کاملExperimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold
Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens ...
متن کاملPlague dynamics are driven by climate variation.
The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1 degrees C increase in spring ...
متن کاملComparative Analysis of China's Energy Geopolitics in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia; With an Eye on Iran’s Position
China, as a rising power, is an important market for fossil fuels. Meantime, the supply of fossil fuels depends on the geopolitical position of the exporting countries. The Persian Gulf and Central Asia are rich regions from an energy perspective. These regions have appropriate locations for supplying the Chinese market. Iran is located between the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. In this article...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
دوره 108 35 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011